Expected Value Decision Model
Compare two options by decomposing upsides, downsides, and costs
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Write down two options you’re choosing between. (Sometimes that means do thing A vs. don’t do thing A, or do thing A vs. do thing B.)
Option A
Option B
Optional: Add success criteria if you want them.
“Done means” is how you’ll know you finished; “Purpose” is why it matters. Skip if you don’t need them.
Option A
Option B
Optional: Urgency and how easy it is to reverse course
These mostly matter when the two options score close to each other. Use 0 = low, 3 = high for each menu.
Use Add benefit to write out a benefit, and choose whether it applies to Option A, B, or both. Then fill the factors related to value, probability, etc.—they determine the expected value for that upside.
No benefits listed yet.
Use Add risk to write out a downside, and choose whether it applies to Option A, B, or both. Then fill the factors related to value, probability, etc.—they determine the expected value for that downside.
No risks listed yet.
Costs are on a 0–3 scale (none → high). Pick the level that best matches each option.
Option A
Option B
Name both options in Define the Fork first. Then add at least one upside or downside (with a label), or set any certain cost above “none,” to unlock a recommendation.